Giants' 2023-24 Offseason Plan v1.0

Seven moves to become a top five team in the National League.

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If you’re reading this post, you likely follow me on Twitter and saw the tweet summarizing the meat of this post. This article will take you through my thinking behind the approach for this offseason plan, write ups on each of the suggested moves and possible alternatives, what the payroll and roster looks like with these transactions, and finally some concluding thoughts. I have another post in mind in the next couple of days where I will look at NRI, minor league free agents, and players I did deep-dives on and considered for this plan, but didn’t end up incorporating. I’m interested in hearing your feedback on this article’s proposed ideas, especially so if you feel the trade cost or contract cost is too low. Please respond here, on Twitter @giantsprospects, or email giantsprospectsgpt@gmail.com.

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Introduction

It’s no secret that offensive production was the chief issue the Giants had in 2023. They finished 21st in MLB by wRC+ as a group. Their two most productive position players, by fWAR (Estrada and Bailey), accumulated their value on the defensive side of the ball. That isn’t ideal. The roster just didn’t have enough durable, everyday position players that could be projected to accumulate 550 PA+ and produce at an above average level. I have long believed that the true quality of a team should be primarily judged by their ability to win their division. That is a tough task in the NL West with the Dodgers remaining quite a bit ahead of the Giants in overall talent. The next best thing is to be a top five team in the NL and get one of the three wild cards. It will likely take 84-88 wins to get one of those spots and my goal here was to build a roster that projects on Opening Day to hit that mark, without relying on the young players making a significant leap.

The priorities in developing the plan:

1. The outfield was the main source of struggles, finishing 24th as a group by wRC+, with the third worst fWAR at 1.8. Outfield defense remained an issue. The group was dead last in 2022 by Statcast’s Outs Above Average (OAA) at -26, and though improved in 2023, was still one of the worst teams in baseball at -13 OAA. So, my first priority was improving the outfield bat quality as well as defense.

2. The offense also just needed better bats. J.D. Davis had a solid year overall, making remarkable improvements to his defense, but was only slightly above average with the bat. Joc Pederson couldn’t replicate his strong 2022 season, and struggled mightily against LHP. Giants ended up with decent production at the DH spot thanks to Wilmer Flores’ strong year, but can’t expect him to replicate that next season. Addressing these two positions was my next priority.

3. Giants need for a front-line starter grew with the news that Alex Cobb would have hip surgery and be out for at least six months. That likely leads him to be out for the first couple of months of the regular season, and how he looks upon return at age 36 is also a concern. The good news here is that there are a number of free agent options that fill the bill. I’m wary of the downside risk with pitchers, so finding an option that can be relied upon while also not requiring at 150M+ commitment was my focus here.

4. The Giants plan at shortstop for 2024 appears to be turning over the position to top prospect Marco Luciano. That is acceptable to me. The fortunes of this franchise in the next few years rest partially on his broad shoulders and now is the time to see what he can do. It’s prudent to find an alternative option though. That is the final thing I tackled.

5. If Shohei Ohtani is a serious possibility for the Giants, throw this plan in the bin and go sign him.

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The Plan

Move #1. Giants trade 3B J.D. Davis, OF Michael Conforto, and RHP Anthony DeSclafani to Brewers for OF Christian Yelich

Takeaway: Giants get an everyday LF who projects to be above average for the next couple of seasons, while getting off of 2023 "bad salary." Milwaukee reduces long-term payroll risk, while filling immediate needs without being saddled with commitments into 2025.

Contract Details, attributes (age on opening day), and statistics: For 2023, Giants cut $7.3M in CBT payroll with this move. Removing DeSclafani and the cash, make this a net neutral trade.

• Yelich - LHH, 32.3Y, 6'3" 195

• 2023: 632PA .278/.370/.447, 22K%, 12BB%, 122wRC+, 19HR, 28SB, +4OAA

Giants outlook: Christian Yelich will be entering his age 32 season and will be ages 32-36 through the course of this contract. He had his best recent season by far, after making some mechanical tweaks, getting healthier. Video review and a few under the hood metrics indicate to me that he can sustain this level of production for at least another couple of seasons, and due to his approach and swing profile he will not completely crater in the latter part of the deal. 11 out of his 19 HR this season went to LF/LCF, so park effects should be more muted for him than a typical LHH at AT&T. Defense bounced back, with a +4 OAA in LF, though he has a poor arm. He continues to show good speed with well above average sprint speed, and also had 28 SB in 2023. Struggled against LHP with a 73 wRC+, so would need to be protected at times. He has been durable, averaging about 650 PA the past couple of seasons, but has had persistent lower back issues for awhile now, could get worse in his mid-30s. His contract includes a full no-trade clause, so would need to approve this trade.

Giants get off of 30M for next season with Michael Conforto and Anthony DeSclafani going the other way. The notable cost is J.D. Davis who projects to be an average starter (becomes a FA after 2024). The cash of 5M is to reduce how much salary Milwaukee would need to take on for 2024. Stripling could be offered as an alternative to DeSclafani, he makes about the same. Alternatively, could pull DeSclafani and cash components out of the deal if necessary. I think a 45 FV prospect from Milwaukee would make this deal a bit more even, but I'm not too stuck on it. I project Yelich to be worth 9-11 WAR over the course of the five years. He has a 6.5M buyout in 2029 that I'm including in the 126M calculation.

Brewers outlook: Yelich makes up the vast majority of the money they have on the books from next season. After a strong bounce back year, they would be moving on at the best time and remove the risk from their future. They currently don't have a good option at 3B, and J.D Davis fills that with a cost just under 6M. Conforto didn't live up to expectations in 2022, but still had an okay season as a league average bat, and average in LF with a decent arm. AT&T is hard for left handed hitters that don't have upper quartile power, so Conforto's will play better in Milwaukee. I can see him bouncing back close to 2 WAR. If healthy, Steamer projects DeSclafani to be a bit better than two of the current projected starters for Milwaukee (Houser, top prospect Gasser), so at the very least serves as a depth option on an expiring deal. All three could be trade deadline candidates if they get off to a hot start and the Brewers are out of the playoff race.

Alternatives: I don't see a good alternative to Yelich with this 2023 salary dump approach, but the Giants might see more with these following players than what I do:

• CF/DH Byron Buxton: 5/75M left on his deal, coming off of yet another injury plagued season ending in arthroscopic knee surgery. When on the field, he's productive, handles CF. Twins might want off this ride, while the Giants play the odds. This would be palatable based on the Giants review of his medical records.

• LF/DH Giancarlo Stanton: 4/100M left on his deal, coming off of a below average offensive season, trending towards pure DH, still hits ball hard. I’m not a fan of this.

• 3B Ryan McMahon: 4/48M left on his deal, coming off of a below average season. Could pair this with not signing Matt Chapman and going after someone like Cody Bellinger (not a good idea!)

Move #2. Giants sign 3B Matt Chapman to a five-year, $120M contract

Takeaway: Giants get an everyday 3B that has a decently high floor due to upper tier defense.

Contract Details, attributes, and statistics:

• Chapman - RHH, 30.11Y, 6'0" 215

• 581PA .240/.330/.424, 28K%, 11BB%, 110wRC+, 17HR, 4SB, +4OAA

Giants outlook: Matt Chapman will be ages 31-35 through this deal. He's an everyday third baseman that can help cover some of the range limitations the Giants will have with Luciano at SS. Chapman was an elite defender a couple of years ago, but has declined, though it’s still a strength for him. Had somewhat of a down offensive season in 2023, but after video review, I feel confident that he has more in the tank. Underlying power metrics are also still strong and his approach by limiting chases will keep him afloat as he declines physically. Sprint speed in 2023 remained well above average. I think he ages better than the average 31 year old on a five-year deal. The Athletic projected him at 5/95M, MLB Trade Rumors at 6/150. I went with MLBTR's AAV and The Athletic's years to get to 5/120. I would be comfortable going up to 5/130M. I project him to be to be at 12-13 WAR over the 5-year deal. Zaidi was an Assistant General Manager for the A's when Chapman was drafted in the first round out of Cal State-Fullerton in 2014. Bob Melvin was the manager throughout Chapman's time in Oakland (2017-21). Chapman has a qualifying offer attached to him, the penalty is discussed in the next section.

Alternative: If this isn't possible, I would look to spend the money elsewhere, like taking on Patrick Corbin's salary if he comes with someone like RF Lane Thomas. Then at third, I would go into the season with J.D. Davis, and hope Casey Schmitt's bat develops.

Move #3. Giants sign RHP Sonny Gray to a three-year, $72M contract, with a player option after Year 1

Takeaway: Giants add a top of the rotation starter without having to spend over 100M.

Contract Details, attributes, and statistics: Including a player option after year 1.

• 34.4Y, 5'10" 195

• 184IP 156H 55BB 183K 2.79 ERA, 66 ERA-, 67 FIP-

Giants outlook: Farhan Zaidi noted in his end of the year press conference that the Giants would only be interested in adding a front-line starter, Sonny Gray certainly fit the bill in 2023, finishing as a Cy Young finalist in the AL. Gray will be aged 34-36 through this three year deal and at his smaller build (5'10" 195) brings to question his long-term durability. His track record provides some comfort here, he has made at least 23 starts in the four full regular seasons since 2019, making at least 31 starts twice in that span. In 2023, he tweaked his sweeper to throw it harder, while upping the usage, turning its effectiveness into one of the best pitches in baseball. He was comfortable throwing it to both RHH and LHH. He throws his 4-seam FB, sinker, and sweeper about 60% of the time, with the rest coming from an above average CB, above average cutter. His FB velocity has held steady in the 92-93 range the past few seasons. He had a few minor injuries in the 2022 season after not being ready to open the season. He revamped his offseason training and showed up for the 2023 season in excellent shape, getting stronger in the lower half. He noted at the end of this season that money is important, but not the only factor in free agency, with being close to his family in Nashville also being considered. SF to Nashville is a tough trip, so that might make this a hard signing. 3/72M is the The Athletic projection, I would be comfortable going up to 4/90M as per MLB Trade Rumors. The option after the first year is to buy down the deal a little bit and help with giving SF more of a consideration. I project him to at 8-9 WAR over the course of the three seasons. Zaidi was a Director of Baseball Operations for the A's when they drafted Gray, in the first round out of Vanderbilt, in 2011. Bob Melvin was the manager throughout his time in Oakland (2013-17). Gray has a qualifying offer attached to him, the penalty is discussed in the next section.

Alternatives: I would look at LHP Shōta Imanaga at 4/48M or RHP Seth Lugo at 2/30M. Imanaga has one of the best fastballs in professional baseball, which is a good foundation to have. I like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but have some concerns about how he will hold up physically and at the price it's going to take, it really hurts to not get production from a player like him. I think he is a big move that you make when the team can withstand a payroll load without production, like the Dodgers would be able to. I don’t think the Giants are in a position to be able to do that right now.

Move #4. Giants trade 1B Wilmer Flores and OF Austin Slater to Twins for OF Max Kepler and INF Michael Helman

Takeaway: Giants get an everyday RF who hits for power, good fit defensively for AT&T Park. Minnesota gets one of the best CF playing LHP mashers in baseball, and a cheap 1B/DH who had a strong year.

Contract Details, attributes, and statistics: Wilmer Flores has a mutual option in 2025, a player option for 3.5M, and if declined, a team option for 8.5M.

• Kepler - LHH, 31.1Y, 6'4" 225

  • 491PA .260/.332/.484, 22K%, 9BB%, 124 wRC+, 24HR, 1SB, +4OAA

• Helman (A/AA/AAA) - 27.4Y, RHH, 5'11" 195

  • 166PA .302/.368/.544, 14K%, 7BB%, 7HR, 8SB

Giants outlook: Max Kepler will be entering his age 31 season, free agent after 2024. Kepler had a strong 2023 season offensively, his best since 2019. Set career bests in barrel rate, hard hit rate, and average exit velocity. He was above average vs. both RHP and LHP, so can be plugged in everyday. He is an average runner, and has maintained his sprint speed from the past few years. Solidly above average in RF over his career with an above average arm that'll play well at AT&T. Played some CF earlier in his career, but those days are likely behind him. Even with his strong 2023 season, I see more upside with him next season after video review. He started getting more aggressive with the first pitch a few months into the season and that elevated his offensive production. He improved his ability to manage fastballs up in the zone. These changes along with a long history of having a good approach, limiting chase rate, will enhance his ability to find success on pitches he should do damage on. Kepler's power will likely be affected by playing in AT&T, Twins home park is roughly middle of the pack in HR park factor for LHH, whereas AT&T is one the toughest. The two seasons prior to 2023, he had some warning track power issues, which could return playing in a tougher environment. There is a backdoor play here of being able to QO Kepler at the end of the season if he has a good year, and recoup some compensation. I project him to be a 3 WAR player this season. Michael Helman is an org guy in the Twins system, with defensive versatility, some power, and a good approach. He's not necessary if the Twins balk at including him. Wilmer Flores had a strong 2023, but I think he regresses in 2024, and his positional limitations make a tough fit on the roster, so I look at him as being able to sell high. Austin Slater has value, but will be a free agent at the end of the season, and I would like to see more upside from his roster spot. I would be willing to add a 40+ FV prospect from the Giants side to make it more attractive to Minnesota, might even go up to a 45 FV prospect depending on who it is.

Twins outlook: Minnesota is reportedly looking to not add payroll and likely would try to decrease payroll. Kepler is a pending free agent and unlikely to be re-signed, and outfield is an area of depth for Minnesota with Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Willi Castro, Alex Kirilloff, and Matt Wallner. Larnach, Castro, Kirilloff, and Wallner all struggled against LHP in 2023. Minnesota's outfielders finished 19th in wRC+ vs. LHP, so Slater is a strong platoon fit. Slater can also provide defensive versatility being average in CF, and above average in the corners.

Byron Buxton had knee surgery this offseason, but hopes to return to playing CF next season. That could open up a DH spot that the Twins fill with Edouard Julien and play Kirilloff at 1B, so not a direct path to playing time for Flores, who had a strong offensive season and can wear a few hats at a low cost. He can also be brought back in 2025 with a team option that is reasonable. He provides coverage for Polanco at 2B, Kirilloff/Julien at 1B, Lewis at 3B, and of course at DH as well. Adding these two players allows Minnesota to break up their lefty heavy outfield options with a quality platoon bat, and fill a power hitting utility role on the cheap.

Alternative: The alternative here is to not do this trade nor sign Jorge Soler and instead sign OF Jung-hoo Lee (4/60M), plan to play him in CF, and move Mike Yastrzemski to RF. Lee shows some intriguing ability and will be relatively young for a free agent signing. But I've heard concerns from a source about his ability to play an average CF, especially coming off of ankle surgery, and I have questions about whether he will hit for enough power to play in the corners. Might be a tweener that you're constantly looking to upgrade.

Move #5. Giants sign DH Jorge Soler to a three-year, $45M contract

Takeaway: One of the best power hitters available in free agency, fits in as the DH who can knock it out of any ballpark.

Contract Details, attributes, and statistics:

• RHH, 32.2Y, 6'4" 235

• 580PA .250/.341/.512, 24K%, 11BB%, 126wRC+, 36HR, 1SB, -5OAA

Giants outlook: Jorge Soler will be ages 32-24 through this deal. He has an elite ability to barrel balls up with high exit velocity, and has a good amount of selectiveness at the plate as well. 2023 was his second best offensive season of his career and I saw reasons on video review to believe that can continue for another couple of years. His time in the outfield needs to be limited, so that puts a ton of pressure on his bat. Soler had a serious back issue that affected him during the 2022 season, and has also had some oblique injuries in the past few years. I believe he'll hold up offensively to be worth paying a good amount for a DH, if he can stay on the field. I project him to be 4-5 WAR player over the course of his three seasons.

Alternative: I strongly considered Mitch Garver here. I was beating the drum for him as a starting catching option in 2023 when the plan was to go with Joey Bart. Now, it's as a DH, with a rare start at catcher. His bat plays at DH, hitting for well above average against both RHP and LHP. His struggles with being able to stay healthy is ultimately what led me to go with Soler, though giving Soler a three year deal does give me discomfort. Rhys Hoskins is another name I considered, but I don't think there is enough high end power for it to play at AT&T and as a DH. If the Giants went with Garver instead, I would not complain, especially if it’s on a two-year deal for slightly lesser AAV

Move #6. Giants trade RHP Tristan Beck and RHP Kai-Wei Teng to the Cardinals for OF Dylan Carlson

Takeaway: Giants trade from pitching depth to add a young platoon option in CF with some upside. Cardinals shore up pitching depth.

Contract Details, attributes, and statistics: Carlson is under team control through the 2026 season.

• SHH, 25.5Y, 6'2" 205

• 255PA .219/.318/.333, 19K%, 10BB%, 84wRC+, 5HR, 3SB, +3OAA (CF)

Giants Outlook: Dylan Carlson was St. Louis' top prospect a few years ago, had good years in 2021 and 2022 albeit with declining offensive performance. 2023 went poorly for him, ending in August with an oblique and ankle injury, the ankle required surgery later. Even in a relatively poor year, he did hit LHP well, and has done so throughout his career. He also does a good job limiting chases out of the zone. He has been notably above average in CF the past couple seasons, though he was projected to be a corner type as a prospect. Has a strong arm. After watching video of him, I think there is potential to adjust his LHH swing to generate more power and be more competitive vs. RHP. That is the upside I see with this move, and a fallback as a younger imitation Austin Slater. I see Tristan Beck as the 7th SP on the depth chart right now and Kai Wei Teng at 8th or 9th, with Carson Whisenhunt and Mason Black coming up quickly behind them.

Cardinals Outlook: Carlson is behind Lars Nootbar in CF, Jordan Walker in RF, and Tyler O'Neill in LF, while also competing with Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, and Richie Palacios for playing time. Cardinals are in sore need of starting pitching depth and they get two cracks at finding a piece with Tristan Beck and Kai-Wei Teng. Beck had a solid debut throwing 85 innings at 93 ERA- this season. He has flashed the pitch mix needed to turn the lineup over a few times. Teng has racked up strikeout totals his entire time in the Giants org. He has great feel for a good slider that can get outs at the major league level. Needs a step up in control to be competitive as a starter, but can see him getting 6-9 outs per appearance. Teng is Rule 5 eligible, so some risk for St. Louis that he is lost if this trade occurs before the draft. He can be substituted with a similar level player.

Alternative: The Giants can just go with an internal option and allow someone from the Luis Matos, Wade Meckler, Tyler Fitzgerald, Heliot Ramos group to grab the role. Matos' struggles defensively is what made me consider looking outside the org to fill this role. If Matos can shore up that part of his game, he is the superior option here. Harrison Bader is on the free agency market and fits this role well. Depending on how the other moves in this plan play out, he is a worthwhile option to consider on a 1/10M deal. If DeSclfani and cash is pulled out of the Yelich deal, I would look to see if the Cardinals are interested in taking him on for Carlson. He would be an option with more of a track record.

Move #7. Giants sign SS Elvis Andrus to a one-year, $5M contract

Takeaway: Giants shore up the shortstop position with a respected veteran, who can still handle the position.

Contract Details, attributes, and statistics:

• RHH, 35.6Y, 6'0" 210

• 406PA .251/.304/.358, 18K%, 6BB%, 81wRC+, 6HR, 12SB, +4OAA

Giants outlook: Elvis Andrus has been a mainstay in the big leagues since 2009, collecting over 2,000 hits while his defensive value carried his production. At age 35, he still shows an ability to be an above average defensive shortstop in the big leagues. OAA had him at +4 this season and +6 last season at the position. Andrus had a fine offensive season in 2022 and rode it to his most productive year since 2017. Reverted to career averages in 2023, and projects to be there again in 2024. I see Andrus as an inexpensive backup option to Luciano at SS. If he’s needed in a starting capacity for an extended period, he's not going to add much with the bat, but he'll be quality defensively. In a bench role, he'll be a good defensive substitute late in the game, and a respected voice in the clubhouse. I'm assuming he's sign-able at this price because he's not on MLBTR's top 50 free agents, nor their honorable mentions (22 listed). #50 on their list is at 1/12M, so discounting down from there.

Alternative: I really wanted to figure out a way to extract Gabriel Arias from Cleveland, but just couldn't get a handle on their plans at SS and what it would take to get him. Is he the guy for Cleveland, or just the guy filling out the role right now? I think he can be a lot better offensively than he has been so far (402 PA, 77 wRC+), while being able to stick at SS for awhile. Jorge Mateo is another option to consider on the trade market. He can't really hit, but is effective defensively at SS, can play the OF, and is an elite runner. From the NRI potential pool, I think Kevin Newman is an okay option.

That covers all seven major moves that I have mapped out. Next, how the payroll, roster, and lineups project to look after these changes.

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Payroll

The simple table summarizes how the team’s CBT calculated payroll looks after these moves:

• The CBT payroll figures are from Cot’s Baseball Contracts (hosted on BP). FanGraphs’ Roster Resource calculates current projected payroll at $2M higher.

• After these moves, I project the Giants to have a $231M payroll, leaving them about $6M under the CBT tax line’s first threshold. $231M would have put the Giants at the 6th highest payroll in 2023. They were in the 3-7 range from 2012-18, so not completely out of line to expect they can get back to that level relative to the league.

• By signing Matt Chapman, the Giants would lose their second-highest selection in the 2024 MLB Draft, as well as $500K from their international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. By signing Sonny Gray as well, they will also forfeit their third-highest remaining pick and an additional $500K.

• If the Yelich trade is modified to exclude DeSclafani and the cash, I project the Giants to be ~1.5M into the tax, which means they would need to pay a 20% penalty, which shakes out to be about $300K.

26-Man Roster

Lineups

Mitch Haniger has hit LHP well over his career, so that is the role I see for him on the roster. Spelling Yelich, Kepler, and if he can pick up 1B, Wade Jr. as well.

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Concluding Thoughts

1. All of this seems doable, and instances where it seems like the Giants are getting the better end of the deal, I can see adding more to make it realistic and still valuing it as worth doing.

2. These moves add real power threats to the lineup, while having seven out of the nine project to be average or better offensively overall next season

3. Maintains org philosophy of avoiding long-term pitcher deals, but adds a reliable front-line starter

4. No major prospect is traded in these proposed moves, and if anybody is needed to be added to make the deals work, they are likely coming outside of the top 5. Losing two high draft picks and $1M in international bonus pool does hurt though.

5. Team gets better defensively at 3B, LF, RF, gets worse at SS. Not being able to find a better option than Yastrzemski in CF was a failure on my part, but it's not easy to acquire players who can hit RHP like he can and play an average CF. Those options need to be developed internally. Improving defense in LF and RF with Yelich and Kepler, takes some of the harsh spotlight off of Yastrzemski in CF.

6. In my review of all the top free agents, there was one name that jumped out as someone to avoid, Cody Bellinger. There are a number of warning signs here for me and if he ends up going for more than $200M, it could get bad quickly.

7. There is a good deal of financial risk involved with these transactions with a lot of money going to early to mid 30-year olds. But I believe the bigger risk is to make half-measure moves, hope for accelerated development and production from the young crop of players to build a competitive team for the next few years. The next window should be led by homegrown players, but I believe in pushing financially to make the intervening teams as strong as possible. The contracts being added with these moves shouldn’t affect the team’s ability retain their homegrown stars, or affect being able to supplement them in 2027 and beyond. Giants have often talked about keeping financial flexibility open to add to a homegrown core, I think the time to use that is now. Ultimately, these moves should bring excitement back to the team, put butts in the seats, and give the franchise a decent chance at another championship.

If I get any feedback that I consider to be significant and important, I will make v2.0 plan post, otherwise this is it. I have a couple more article ideas for the next week, but after that I’ll be returning to work and my time for baseball will grow short again, so posts here will likely be limited, but we’ll see what inspiration strikes me.

Thank you for reading and excuse any typos or poor leaps in logic, I preemptively blame it on baby brain.

—Avi

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